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18 Share Tips - 23 October 2011

18 Share Tips - 23 October 2011

By Anthony Black 23.10.2011


Peter Rae, Morningstar

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

Woolworths (WOW)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Shares in the supermarket giant haven’t performed well in recent months given investor concerns about a resurgent Coles and a weak consumer outlook. But WOW’s core food and liquor business continues to perform well. While Coles has sales momentum, WOW is still by far the most efficient and profitable operator. Woolworths has an enviable track record, with well above average growth in earnings and dividends per share in the past decade.

Austal (ASB)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Its Australian shipbuilding operations have been suffering from a soft European ferry market and a high Aussie dollar affecting its competitiveness. But earnings and dividends are set to grow strongly in full year 2012 and 2013 as revenues ramp up from its multi-billion dollar US Navy contracts. The shares look cheap at current prices. On October 20, the company was trading at $2.20. 

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

InvoCare (IVC)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Even in uncertain economic times, this funeral arranger and provider of ancillary services enjoys predictable, high quality and steadily growing earnings supported by a strong industry position and well-known brands, such as White Lady Funerals. Gearing is high, but interest expenses are adequately covered by reliable cash flows. On a full-year 2012 price/earnings ratio of 18 times, the stock isn’t cheap, but it offers a relatively high dividend yield.

WorleyParsons (WOR) 

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Worley provides engineering, procurement and construction management services to a range of industries, but 68 per cent of revenue is generated from its hydrocarbons division. Earnings are recovering on an improving outlook for the global oil and gas sector. And with more than $200 billion in LNG and other petroleum projects underway in Australia, there are significant revenue opportunities available to the group.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

Pacific Brands (PBG)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Despite management action to transform and simplify the business by culling brands and cutting costs, the outlook remains challenging. Consumer confidence is weak and major retailers are increasingly and directly sourcing clothing offshore. In our view, full-year 2012 earnings will suffer from losing Kmart as an underwear customer. Higher cotton, labour and utility costs will hurt margins.

Goodman Fielder (GFF)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

GFF is in a structurally weak industry. Margins are vulnerable to agricultural commodity and fuel price rises, as well as consumer drifting away from higher margin branded products. Also, the supermarket chains have more bargaining power than food manufacturers. Although the share price has fallen significantly and the balance sheet has improved following a capital raising, uncertainty remains ahead of a major strategic review.

Mark Lennox, Think Technically

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

National Australia Bank (NAB)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Australian banks appear to have negligible exposure to Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain. With a price/earnings multiple likely to move up to a more usual range of between 10-to-12 times, we see a potential capital return and a grossed up sustainable dividend yield of between 9 per cent and 12 per cent.

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Trading conditions were challenging in the first quarter with comparable store sales falling 3.5 per cent. But the company believes it’s well positioned to take advantage of the important Christmas period due to its large array of gift giving merchandise. We believe there’s upside into the end of the year.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

Iluka Resources (ILU)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

The company expects its strong position in zircon and mineral sands to remain unaffected by any downturn in China’s growth. Iluka reported a 10 per cent increase in mineral sands production for the September quarter and holds a third of the world’s market share for zircon, which is used in ceramic tiles.

Rio Tinto (RIO)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Third quarter iron ore and hard coking coal sales in 2011 are up 5 per cent and 14 per cent respectively on the previous corresponding period. It indicates the company is operating at full capacity and the growth program is on track. While volatility in commodity markets is high, company fundamentals appear to be holding up well.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

Cochlear (COH)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

This hearing implant firm reported an increase in device failures in line with expectations.  But the company’s reputation is under scrutiny and any further problems could impact future sales. Cochlear also has to contend with Sonova re-entering the US market. 

Macquarie Group (MQG)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Australia’s premier investment bank is experiencing tough market conditions. Merger and acquisition activity in 2011  is way down on last year. As Macquarie trades near book value, we expect the market to find some stability. But  Macquarie could face continuing headwinds if global negative sentiment surrounding investment banks is sustained for any lengthy period.

Peter Esho, City Index

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

Dexus Property Group (DXS)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

We think office property is a good place to be at the moment, more so on first class buildings situated in large metropolitan cities. Dexus ticks all the right boxes, with a high quality portfolio of office buildings supplemented by some industrial assets, usually in high growth areas. There are some non-core assets, which the group plans to exit. But for now, the discount to net tangible assets is attractive enough, combined with a solid earnings yield.

Qantas Airways (QAN)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

The business has been hurt by several external factors over the past few years – engines falling from the sky, natural disasters and hefty fuel price rises. Yet the company continues to run at a profit. This is the reality for airlines, which aren’t usually the best businesses to invest in. But at current prices below $2, Qantas is trading at a significant discount to book value (net of debt) to justify a trading opportunity. On October 21, the company was priced at $1.485.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

Commonwealth Property Office Fund (CPA)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Like Dexus, this stock is a pure play office exposure with Commonwealth Bank its largest tenant. It’s worth holding for a strong yield and upside exposure to an increase in property values in the next few years given the supply constraints in office development.

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Even the best retailers are doing it tough. JB Hi-Fi continues to see negative comparable sales growth, but the market is starting to factor all this in. Eventually, at some point, when sales growth resumes, the business has large operating leverage to capture profits. Not a buy in our view, but worth hanging on to at current prices. If it rallies above $20, we would be a seller. On October 21, the shares were trading at $14.25.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

Campbell Brothers (CPB)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Loved by the market, but we think the $3 billion market capitalisation is over stretched for a laboratory services business, leveraged to resources and energy volumes and generating peak profits below $200 million. CPB is a great business, but the multiple being paid by the market is too high given global uncertainties. Now is a great opportunity to sell into price strength. 

Newcrest Mining (NCM)

CHART 

Chart: Share price over the year to 21/10/2011 versus ASX200 (XJO)

Not only is the market expecting a strong gold price in forecasting Newcrest’s earnings, but also a big rise in production. This is compounded by a price/earnings ratio above 20 times. You wouldn’t want to be holding and wake up to the gold price halving one day. With this risk in mind, there’s other ways to play gold and so Newcrest remains a great selling opportunity at these levels. Even if gold price goes up, other exposures will provide a higher degree of upside. 

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Please note that TheBull.com.au simply publishes broker recommendations on this page. The publication of these recommendations does not in any way constitute a recommendation on the part of TheBull.com.au. You should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.



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WHAT’S ON THIS WEEK

week 24 October 2014
    • 20
    • Medibank Private prospectus Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and Medibank Private managing director George Savvides announce details of Medibank Private prospectus | 4:05 AM
    • RBA Speech by RBA assistant governor (Economic) Christopher Kent to the Leading Age Services Australia National Congress 2014 | 6:08 AM
    • SGH Slater & Gordon annual general meeting | 6:09 AM
    • Book launch Book launch of The Boy From Nowhere, the story of Kerry Stokes | 6:46 AM
    • 21
    • RBA Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia October board meeting released | 2:18 AM
    • SXL Southern Cross Austereo annual general meeting | 2:18 AM
    • RBA Speech by RBA deputy governor Philip Lowe to the Commonwealth Bank's Australasian Fixed Income conference | 4:29 AM
    • NCM Newcrest Mining quarterly production report | 4:59 AM
    • International Investment Funds Association Annual Conference of the International Investment Funds Association | 5:13 AM
    • BKN Bradken annual general meeting | 5:16 AM
    • ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) International merchandise imports for September | 5:41 AM
    • ANZ ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence survey | 5:42 AM
    • QAN Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce to unveil new A330 business suite | 5:42 AM
    • 22
    • Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce lunch Former ACCC chairman Graeme Samuel speaking at Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce lunch | 4:06 AM
    • SUL Super Retail Group annual general meeting | 5:13 AM
    • CBA Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator for September | 5:35 AM
    • ORG Origin Energy annual general meeting | 5:40 AM
    • Westpac/Melbourne Institute Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Indexes of Economic Activity | 6:05 AM
    • ABS ABS Consumer Price Index for September quarter | 6:05 AM
    • BHP BHP Billiton quarterly production report | 6:06 AM
    • Northern Territory Major Projects Conference Northern Territory Major Projects Conference | 6:09 AM
    • AmCham lunch Twitter Australia managing director Karen Stocks speaking at AmCham lunch | 6:10 AM
    • 23
    • HIA Housing Industry Association-RP Data residential land report for the June quarter | 2:19 AM
    • AGL AGL annual general meeting | 4:23 AM
    • SKE Skilled Group annual general meeting | 4:24 AM
    • TOL Toll Holdings annual general meeting | 4:25 AM
    • AMC Amcor annual general meeting | 4:25 AM
    • BKL Blackmores annual general meeting | 4:26 AM
    • IOF Investa Office Fund annual general meeting | 4:26 AM
    • NAB National Australia Bank's business survey for the September quarter | 4:28 AM
    • BHP BHP Billiton annual general meeting | 4:29 AM
    • RBA RBA governor Glenn Stevens to address annual general meeting of the Australian Payments and Clearing Association | 6:07 AM
    • SUN Suncorp Group annual general meeting | 6:08 AM
    • 24
    • QAN Qantas annual general meeting | 4:26 AM
    • PPX PaperlinX annual general meeting | 4:27 AM
    • QFX Quickflix annual general meeting | 4:27 AM
    • CRZ Carsales.com annual general meeting | 4:27 AM
    • RMD Resmed first quarter results | 4:28 AM

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Craig James, of CommSec points out that retail sales grew by 7.4 per cent during the past year, marking the best rolling 12-month period since January 2002

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